Hisun Pharmaceutical (600267): monoclonal antibody assets are planned to reach 3.8 billion, investment and investment integration will be further implemented

Hisun Pharmaceutical (600267): monoclonal antibody assets are planned to reach 3.8 billion, investment and investment integration will be further implemented

Event: The subsidiary Hisun Broady intends to carry out the transfer of old shares and increase its capital. It is estimated that the investment is not less than 5.6 billion US dollars and the transfer of old shares is not less than 28.

28 trillion, capital increase is not less than 10 trillion.

After the capital increase and transfer are completed, the company’s direct shareholding in Hisun Broady will replace 42% from nearly 100% equity, and will no longer replace the company’s consolidated statement scope.

  Comment: The start of the war voting work is good for Hisun’s long-term development. Hisun’s verge is a monoclonal antibody that is formed by Hisun Pharmaceutical’s integration of Taizhou and Fuyang monoclonal antibody assets and formed by the Shanghai Baiying sales team.Biopharmaceutical Platform Company.

  The company focuses on the fields of autoimmune diseases and oncology, and currently has more than 20 biopharmaceutical products under development.

Hisense vPro’s pre-investment estimate is not less than 5.6 billion US dollars, which is in line with expectations. Through the continuous listing of products and the ongoing research projects, Hisense vPro is expected to gradually increase in the future.

We believe that the benefits of this equity transfer and value-added to Hisun Borui are mainly reflected in: 1) The company also has multiple ongoing research projects, especially three varieties such as Infliximab are currently in clinical phase III, and expenses,Obtaining capital increase can enhance the continuity of R & D investment, ensure the rapid advancement of clinical trials and R & D, and strengthen competition; 2) Hisun Borui has changed from a single state-owned holding to a strategic investor holding, and state-owned participation, which will help accelerate the implementation of internal employee incentive plans.Ensure the stability of the talent team; 3) After the capital increase and transfer are completed, the company is expected to launch listing plans on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Science and Technology Board, etc., which will help realize the revaluation of the value of biopharmaceutical assets as soon as possible.

  The asset-liability ratio is expected to decline. Profits are gradually released. After the equity transfer of Hisun-Bo Rui, the company can recover a large amount of cash. After repayment of debts, it can effectively reduce the asset-liability ratio, meanwhile, it can reduce interest expenses and release profits.

At present, the company’s comprehensive financing cost remains at about 5%. Assuming that all cash received from the transfer of old shares is used to repay and repay debts, annual financial costs can be saved.

400 million, increasing net profit by about 1.

US $ 200 million, which is expected to be reflected in the 2020 performance, plus a capital increase of no more than US $ 1 billion injected into the Hisense vPro part, overall increasing Hisense’s net profit by more than one.

200000000.

After the war investment date, the listed company still retains 42% equity of Hisense vPro, and it can continue to increase the profits of listed companies after it achieves profit in the future.

  Estimation and investment advice-the old king, the turning point in history!

  We estimate that the Hisun-Bo Rui equity transfer can bring about 2 billion investment income for the company. Taking into account the one-time expenses such as asset impairment and suspension of research and development projects in 19 years, it will reduce the profit for 19 years, but solve the problems left by historyConducive to the company’s long-term development and profit release.

  Since this year, the company has accelerated the transfer of non-core assets, including the transfer of property, non-core R & D subsidiaries (Dongming Pharmaceutical), capital reduction (Hisense Xuantai), generic drug transfer (Hisense Xuantai), and other tasks.Highlight the three main businesses of biological medicines, bulk medicines and preparations.

Since the company’s new shareholders took office, they have focused on strengthening the internal management 北京夜网 system. At present, they have achieved initial results. After 19Q1, the company achieved profit after deductions, which indicates that the company’s business and management have reached a historic inflection point.Adopting a mature CSO model through the introduction of diversity to continue to grow, the profit of Hanhui Pharmaceutical is expected to grow rapidly in the future; 2) The value of the biopharmaceutical sector is seriously underestimated.

After the production expansion of Abbino started to increase rapidly, adalimumab has already been reported for production, and is expected to be approved in Q4 of 19, and many biopharmaceuticals have entered the clinical phase III and gradually harvested; 3) chemical innovation drug Hezemeb IIIThe clinical data is good. It has been declared for production and has been replaced for priority review. 4) The number of generic drug approvals is large, there is no stock, and the production capacity is large. If we can grasp the national centralized procurement policy, we can give full play to the advantages of integration of our own APIs.It is expected to make full use of fixed assets to cover depreciation expenses; 5) In the future, the company will continue to reduce the number of reduced construction projects and improve research and development efficiency, dispose of idle assets / non-core projects, and recover cash from appointments and investments, highlighting biopharmaceuticals, preparations and APIs, etc.The main business is to strengthen the construction of the internal control system. It is expected that the company’s subsequent rejection rate and financial costs are expected to gradually decrease, production / management costs continue to decrease, and profits will gradually be released.

  Hisun Pharmaceutical’s 19-year reasonable estimate is 17 billion (Hanhui 7 billion + biological drugs 7.5 billion + chemical drugs-1 billion + APIs 3 billion + commercial 5 billion).

Of which: 1) Hanhui Pharmaceutical 7 billion: estimated net profit in 19/206.

61/8.

7,000 yuan, an increase of 25% / 22%, Hisun Pharmaceutical holds 51% equity, net profit 3.

37/4.

12 trillion, calculated at 19 times 20 times PE, corresponding to an estimated 70 trillion.

  2) 7.5 billion biopharmaceuticals: Hisun-Bao Rui evaluates 56 trillion + Haisheng Pharmaceuticals estimates 1.9 billion, and are valued at primary market prices.

  3) Chemical medicines-1 billion: conservatively estimated assets of chemical medicines are 5 billion (estimated product line + asset evaluation based on fixed assets), replaced by 6 billion (resulting from fixed asset investment), and valued at 1 billion: existing productsIncreasing profit potential: 200 million net profits in 18 years. Over 50 types of generic drugs have been reported, covering large varieties, benefiting from centralized procurement by the country. 15 innovative drugs are being developed. Among them, Phase III clinical data of Haize Maibu are good, with years of R & D investment.The results have begun to appear. The research product echelon (generic drugs, innovative drugs) is good, plus the fixed asset investment of 5 billion, a total of conservatively given 5 billion US dollars in revenue; chemical drugs make up an estimated 6 billion, after replacement, the value of 1 billion.

  Subtracting: selling approvals, selling fixed assets.

  4) 3 billion drug substances: 2017 net profit of 20-30 million yuan.

The FDA and the European Union have banned more than US $ 300 million in normal net profit. The US market has been lifted in June 17 and sales have gradually resumed. The company is currently exploring and actively expanding into the Japanese market. The increase in high-margin regulatory drug market revenue will increase profitability.

At the same time, the company is expanding its domestic market development and undertaking CMO business, which will become a new growth point.

Based on 10 times PE, it is estimated to be 3 billion.

  5) 500 million pharmaceutical business: 2018 net profit of 31 million yuan, is expected to continue to maintain stable growth, a reasonable estimate of 500 million.

  It is expected that the real performance in 20 years will begin to fully reflect and the inflection point will be integrated.

Assuming that Hisense Broady’s old stock transfer / capital increase is completed within the year and investment income is recognized, it is expected that the company will achieve net profit attributable to mothers in 19/20/21, respectively.

2.2 billion, 3.

09 ppm and 5.

2.5 billion, with EPS of 1.

06 yuan, 0.32 yuan and 0.

54 yuan.

The company has ushered in a historical turning point of management and operation. The current market value is less than 100 trillion, which is underestimated, and a reasonable estimate of 170 trillion in 19 years, maintaining the “Buy” rating.

  Risk reminder: the risk of rapid and comprehensive promotion of the state’s collective mining; management has not been streamlined; depreciation of fixed assets and excessive financial costs have affected performance; etc .;

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